BN leaders count political costs ahead of Sept 16

Barisan Nasional politicians across the country are counting the political cost of events this past week and ruminating their future amid the opposition's diminishing bid to seize power by Tuesday.Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, who gave in to public and political outrage by freeing Sin Chew Daily reporter Tan Hoon Cheng after an 18 hour detention under the Internal Security Act, knows it is a steeper task to regain people's support following the fresh ISA blitz.He already faces fresh calls to quit his Umno presidency ahead of party polls in December from no less than International Trade and Industry Minister and party vice-president Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin, who has also enticed Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad to rejoin the party he quit in May.Mahathir has continued to wage a campaign to oust Abdullah and has not officially indicated he will return to the party he founded in 1988 to succeed the old Umno.Apart from his party woes, Abdullah and key cabinet ministers were briefed of rising racial tensions among the Malays and Chinese as cyberspace and coffee shop chatter heated up after Datuk Ahmad Ismail's rant and punishment together with unfounded allegations of DAP leader Teresa Kok's link to a petition to stop Muslim prayer calls.Despite it being political suicide, the government allowed the police to take action to cool the situation but it sparked the public's outrage over the use of the tough security law last used to detain Hindraf leaders.me have compared it to Dr Mahathir's crackdown in 1987 where 106 were held and several newspapers shut down under Ops Lalang but Home Minister Datuk Seri Syed Hamid Albar has assured no further arrests are expected.Also facing fresh pressure from allies and critics to fight Abdullah for the top party post, deputy prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Abdul Razak has now left it to Umno divisional delegates to decide the president's future despite agreeing to a transition deal for June 2010.Najib, who has been fending off links to the murder of Mongolian Altantuya Shaariibuu, has stoutly defended the pact and pledged loyalty to Abdullah but the Umno ground has shifted against the PM after the Ahmad Ismail episode.The Malaysian Insider understands that Dr Mahathir's allies are ratcheting up the pressure on Najib, threatening to wash some dirty linen in public, if he doesn't challenge Abdullah.The former party president himself is now cool to the idea of Najib for the job, having openly endorsed Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, Muhyiddin and Datuk Seri Rais Yatim separately in the past few months.Muhyiddin, once seen as a likely deputy to Abdullah but strong pressure from Dr Mahathir ensured Najib got the job, has finally voiced objections to the transition deal he supported some time ago. Observers say he is sulking for being passed over and has been offering to team up with either the Kelantan prince or Najib in the party elections.For the record, Muhyiddin won the Umno' vice-presidency in 1993 as part of the Wawasan Team led by a victorious deputy president Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim but lost it to Abdullah in the subsequent election.Anwar, who was sacked from government and party posts in September 1998 on corruption and sodomy charges, has just returned to Parliament last month after almost 10 years in the political wilderness, six of which spent in jail.His prediction to unseat Abdullah by Malaysia Day since the opposition's historic gains in the March 8 elections has rattled the government and also the markets. His Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) has been in hot pursuit of BN lawmakers to defect, much to the chagrin of allies Democratic Action Party (DAP) and Parti Islam SeMalaysia (Pas).

Only one BN component party, the Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP) is seen as likely to cross over' to Anwar's Pakatan Rakyat coalition as its party president Datuk Seri Yong Teck Lee has continuously expressed a lack of confidence in Abdullah's leadership.The tiny Sabah party has two federal lawmakers and four state assemblymen under the BN banner and is scheduled to hold a meeting on Sept 17 to decide its future as the ruling coalition has yet to decide its status for calling the PM to quit.Analysts say Yong's strategy has always been to get BN to sack the party and use it to be martyr and hero for Sabahans but the coalition delay and the looming Sept 16 deadline has forced his hand and decide SAPP's future.But SAPP's decision a day after Anwar's bold prediction of a Sept 16 change of government' is an indication of the opposition icon's difficulty to get an exodus of lawmakers in time to capture Putrajaya.Ahmad Ismail's rant and subsequent arrest of the Chinese reporter was seen as a tipping point to get MCA and Gerakan politicians to jump ship but none have done so thus far as they mull their options in BN.With two days to go to the psychological deadline of Sept 16 despite Pakatan Rakyat's admission it might not meet the date, BN politicians are calculating costs, risks and options as they fight perceptions to stay in power.