Islamic states set to suspend Syria from OIC

1 of 14. Syrian residents inspect houses destroyed by what they said was heavy shelling from Syrian President Bashar al-Assad forces in Banisaba'i area in Homs August 14, 2012.

Credit: Reuters/Yazan Homsy

(Reuters) - Leaders of Muslim countries are expected to suspend Syria's membership of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation at a summit in Mecca on Wednesday, despite the vocal objections of President Bashar al-Assad's main ally Iran.

The decision by the 57-member organization, which requires a two-thirds majority, will expose the divisions within the Islamic world over how to respond to civil war in a country that straddles the Middle East's main sectarian faultline.

In an apparent conciliatory gesture, Saudi state television showed King Abdullah welcoming leaders to the summit with Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad at his side. Abdullah and Ahmadinejad were shown talking and laughing together.

"It was a message to the Iranian nation and, I assume, to the Saudi people, that we are Muslim and we have to work together and forget about our differences," said Abdullah al-Shammari, a Saudi political analyst.

Syria's mainly Sunni Muslim rebels are backed by Sunni-ruled Arab states such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar as well as Turkey, while Shi'ite Iran supports Assad, a member of the Alawite minority sect, an offshoot of Shi'a Islam.

Those divisions have stymied diplomatic efforts to halt the bloodshed inSyria, where opposition sources say 18,000 people have been killed, and have raised the prospect of Syria becoming a proxy battlefield for outside powers.

Assad's former prime minister, Riyad Habib, a Sunni who defected this month, made his first public appearance on Tuesday since he fled, telling a news conference in Jordan that Assad controls less than a third of Syria and his power is crumbling.

"The regime is collapsing, spiritually and financially, as it escalates militarily," he said. "It no longer controls more than 30 percent of Syrian territory."

Hijab was not in Assad's inner circle, but as the most senior civilian official to defect, his defection after two months in the job was a blow to the president.

Hijab did not explain his estimate of the territory still controlled by Assad, whose military outnumbers and outguns the rebels fighting to overthrow him. The army is battling to regain control of Aleppo, Syria's biggest city, after retaking parts of Damascus that were seized by insurgents last month.

Curbs on media access make it hard to know how much of Syria is in rebel hands, but most towns and cities along the country's backbone, a highway running from Aleppo in the north to Deraa in the south, have been swept up in the violence, and Assad has lost swathes of land on Syria's northern and eastern border.

Hijab's defection prompted Washington to announce on Tuesday that it was removing him from a list of Syrian officials targeted by financial sanctions.

VIOLENCE

The fighting in recent weeks has been focused mainly on Aleppo, Syria's economic dynamo, where rebels have been holding out against government bombardment and air strikes.

Reuters journalists in Aleppo heard shelling and explosions in Saif al-Dawla district, next to the Salaheddine neighborhood which has seen some of the heaviest fighting in the last two weeks. One rebel fighter was killed by tank shelling, his bloodied body dragged out of the line of fire by comrades.

"We received some simple amounts of ammunition but it is not enough," said rebel fighter Hossam Abu Mohammad, a former army captain. "We need specific kinds of (anti-tank) weapons."

"We are about 600 Free Syrians fighting in Salaheddine and it is not enough," he told Reuters.

The violence has displaced 1.5 million people inside Syria and forced many to flee abroad, with 150,000 registered refugees in Turkey, Jordan, Lebanon and Iraq, U.N. figures show.

U.N. emergency relief coordinator Valerie Amos visited on Tuesday to discuss aid for civilians trapped or uprooted by the fighting, which has frequently prevented the delivery of food and medical supplies.

"She's there to express her grave, grave concern over the situation," spokesman Jens Laerke said. "She will look at the situation on the ground and discuss with the government and humanitarian partners how to scale up the response in Syria."

Syria says it will use chemical weapons if attacked

BEIRUT (AP) – Syria threatened Monday to unleash its chemical and biological weapons if the country faces a foreign attack, a desperate warning from a regime that has failed to crush a powerful and strengthening rebellion.

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  AFP/Getty Images

  Gunmen, who call themselves "Partisans of the Syrian Revolution," allegedly sneak across Lebanon's border with Syria to fight along Syrian rebels.

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AFP/Getty Images

Gunmen, who call themselves "Partisans of the Syrian Revolution," allegedly sneak across Lebanon's border with Syria to fight along Syrian rebels.

The statement — Syria's first-ever acknowledgment that the country possesses weapons of mass destruction — suggests President Bashar Assad will continue the fight to stay in power, regardless of the cost.

"It would be reprehensible if anybody in Syria is contemplating use of such weapons of mass destruction like chemical weapons," U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said during a trip to Belgrade, Serbia. "I sincerely hope the international community will keep an eye on this so that there will be no such things happening."

• Syria is believed to have nerve agents as well as mustard gas, Scud missiles capable of delivering these lethal chemicals and a variety of advanced conventional arms, including anti-tank rockets and late-model portable anti-aircraft missiles.

During a televised news conference Monday, Foreign Ministry spokesman Jihad Makdissi stressed that the weapons are secure and would only be used in the case of an external attack.

"No chemical or biological weapons will ever be used, and I repeat, will never be used, during the crisis in Syria no matter what the developments inside Syria," he said. "All of these types of weapons are in storage and under security and the direct supervision of the Syrian armed forces and will never be used unless Syria is exposed to external aggression."

The Syrian government later tried to back off from the announcement, sending journalists an amendment to the prepared statement read out by Makdissi. The amendment said "all of these types of weapons — IF ANY — are in storage and under security." It was an attempt to return to Damascus' position of neither confirming nor denying the existence of non-conventional weapons.

In his comments to reporters, Makdissi also repeated the regime's assertion that the country's 17-month-old conflict, which activists say has killed at least 19,000 people, is not the result of a popular uprising, casting it instead as the work of foreign extremists looking to destroy the nation.

Israel and the U.S. are concerned that Syria's stockpile of chemical weapons could fall into the hands of Islamist militants should the regime in Damascus collapse. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Sunday that his country would "have to act" if necessary to safeguard the arsenal from rogue elements.

In Washington, State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said Monday that "any possible use of these kinds of weapons would be completely unacceptable."

"The Syrian regime has a responsibility to the world, has a responsibility first and foremost to its own citizens to protect and safeguard those weapons," she said, adding that Washington was working with allies to monitor the situation and send the message to both Syria's government and opposition about the importance of protecting non-conventional weapons.

A senior U.S. intelligence official said Friday the Syrians have moved chemical weapons material from the country's north, where the fighting was fiercest, apparently to both secure and consolidate it, which U.S. officials considered a responsible step.

But there has also been a disturbing rise in activity at the installations, so the U.S. intelligence community is intensifying its monitoring efforts to track the weapons and try to figure out whether the Syrians are trying to use them, the official said on condition of anonymity to discuss the still-evolving investigation.

Concerns over Syria's long-suspected chemical weapons stockpiles have skyrocketed in recent days as the rebels gain serious momentum in their fight to oust the Assad regime.

Since last week, the anti-Assad fighters have claimed a stunning bomb attack that killed four high-level security officials in Damascus, captured several border crossings and launched sustained offensives in Damascus and Aleppo, the two largest cities and both regime strongholds.

Makdissi tried to assure Syrians that the situation was under control, despite reports of clashes throughout the country.

"Yes, there were clashes on certain streets in certain neighborhoods, but the security situation is now much better. Everyone is feeling reassured," he said. "We are not happy about this, but this is an emergency situation and it will not last more than a day or two and the situation will return to normal."

Security forces appeared to show more government control in videos posted online by activists Monday. Some of the clips show Syrian militia sweeping through Damascus neighborhoods once held by rebels, kicking down doors and searching houses in mop up operations against the fighters that had managed to hold parts of the capital for much of last week.

It was a different story in Aleppo, however, where the Britain-based Syria Observatory reported fierce fighting in a string of neighborhoods, including Sakhour and Hanano, in the northeast of Syria's largest city.

Several videos posted by activists showed rebels battling regime tanks in Sakhour's narrow streets. In one clip, a tank on fire rumbles along a road after being hit by rebels as a man jumps out of the flaming turret. Other videos showed cheering rebels celebrating around destroyed tanks, even driving around one they had captured.

The rebel advance has been a swift turnaround in the momentum of the uprising, which began in March 2011. Still, the opposition remains hobbled by divisions within their ranks and the fact that they are outgunned by the well-armed regime. The violence, meanwhile, has become far more unstable than many had ever imagined, with al-Qaeda and other extremists exploiting the chaos.

Still, the opposition fighters have kept up their battle for 17 months, chipping away at government power and penetrating the aura of invincibility that the Assad family dynasty has built up over four decades in power.

Gulf nations such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar have pledged funds to aid Syria's rebels, but there is no clear trail showing how much is reaching the fighters.

U.S. officials are debating whether to step up aid to the rebels, including sending in heavy weaponry, but officials are worried the aid may end up in the hands of Islamic militants who have infiltrated the rebel Free Syrian Army, the American official said.

Former CIA officer Reuel Marc Gerecht, who is now a scholar at the Foundation for theDefense of Democracies, said Friday that the agency has only a handful of operatives working on the Turkish side of the Syrian border, helping allies who want to give the rebels aid identify which groups are legitimate.

The agency has distributed encrypted radios to the rebels to help them coordinate their attacks. Gerecht has called for the White House to initiate a covert CIA operation inside Syria, to help arm the rebels with weaponry able to take down the helicopter gunships menacing Syrian towns.

Even as the government appeared to be reasserting control in the capital after the weeklong rebel assault, the Arab League offered Assad and his family a "safe exit" if he steps down.

Assad, 46, is married with three young children under the age of 13.

"This request comes from all the … Arab states: Step aside," said Qatari Prime Minister Hamid bin Jassim Al Thani at an Arab League foreign ministers meeting in Doha, Qatar, that concluded at dawn Monday. He urged Syria to form a temporary transitional government to plan for a possible post-Assad era. Makdissi dismissed the offer as "flagrant interventionism."

The Arab League has already suspended Syria's membership and it is doubtful that Assad will pay much attention to their calls.

A guide to the final 100-day sprint for Obama and Romney

For the pair of presidential candidates who must feel they have been campaigning forever — after all, it's been nearly a year since the opening Iowa Straw Poll— a milestone Sunday signals the final sprint.

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  By M. Spencer Green, Carolyn Kaster, AP

  Mitt Romney and President Obama have a few critical opportunities before Election Day to make their best case.

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By M. Spencer Green, Carolyn Kaster, AP

Mitt Romney and President Obama have a few critical opportunities before Election Day to make their best case.

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One hundred days until Nov. 6.

"It's a signal we're turning the corner," says David Axelrod, President Obama's chief strategist, calling it a "psychological milestone." To mark the occasion, the Obama team plans more than 4,200 voter-registration and volunteer-recruitment events across the country Sunday, including "BBQs for Barack" in Ohio and Olympics-watching parties in Nevada.

• Steve Schmidt, a top adviser to Republican John McCainin 2008, notes that years of preparations and calculations by Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney now face a rapid-fire final test. "People have been working on the Obama campaign since 2007, and this is the last race, the last campaign (for him). For Romney, a lot of those people have been working since 2006, 2007," he says. "And they remember it's 100 days to go."

"The last 100 days present a great opportunity because that's when voters are paying the most attention," says Jonathan Collegio of American Crossroads, a pro-Romney super PAC.

Much of the focus will be even tighter, on perhaps 10 hours within those 100 days: Romney's announcement of his running mate next month, the end-of-the-summer speeches delivered by Romney and Obama at the national political conventions, and the three presidential debates scheduled for October.

Some political scientists have devised academic models that downplay the significance of the campaign's final weeks in favor of broad political and economic forces. Alan Abramowitz of Emory University, for one, predicts the popular vote using just three factors, each already set: whether an incumbent president is running (yes), the sitting president's net approval rating in the final Gallup Poll in June (48% approval-46% disapproval) and the change in real GDP in the second quarter. The initial estimate of the nation's economic growth from April through June is due Friday.

His model — which accurately predicted the popular-vote winner in the past five elections — calculates that Obama needs second-quarter growth of 1% or higher to win a majority of the popular vote.

Here's another: In nine of the past 10 elections, the candidate leading in the Gallup Poll taken closest to 100 days out has won the White House. (The exception was 1988, when the 100-day mark came a week after the Democratic convention had given Michael Dukakis a bump. It also came two weeks before the Republican convention nominated George H.W. Bush.)

On Wednesday, with four days to go until the 100-day mark, Gallup's seven-day rolling survey put Romney at 46%, Obama at 45%.

There was a time when Labor Day marked the beginning of the general-election campaign after a summertime lull. Now, presidential battles have expanded in time and increased in intensity, changing their rhythm.

The political conventions have been pushed later in the summer, but the advertising barrage starts earlier as both sides try to shape positive impressions of their candidate and negative impressions of their opponent. There's no longer a summer break: This month, an estimated $100 million worth of political ads have aired in swing states.

The endgame has changed, too. The expansion of early voting and no-excuse-needed absentee voting means more votes are cast earlier. And this year, for the first time, jurisdictions are required to send absentee ballots to active-duty military voters by late September. Political scientist Michael McDonald of George Mason University estimates that a third of all votes will be cast before any polls open on Nov. 6.

"Our 72-hour campaign (to get out the vote) has become a 72-day campaign," says Sean Spicer of the Republican National Committee.

The campaigns have strategies in hand, ads in mind and travel schedules blocked — subject to change as key states become more or less competitive.

"The groundwork has been laid for the train going forward," says Bill Burton, a veteran of Obama's 2008 campaign who now helps run a supportive super PAC, Priorities USA Action.

To be sure, unexpected events could intervene. Days before the 2000 election, the disclosure of a drunken-driving arrest in Maine from a quarter-century earlier rattledGeorge W. Bush's campaign. In 2004, Osama bin Laden released a tape in the campaign's final days in which he admitted for the first time that he was behind the 9/11 attacks, reviving fears of terrorism among some voters — a boost for Bush. In 2008,Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy protection on Sept. 15, stoking a financial crisis and, Axelrod says, putting the candidates' leadership on display in a way that clinched the election for Obama.

There are also moments we know to expect, and that are likely to matter, over the next 100 days. Here is a reader's guide to five of them.

Jockeying at the Olympics

In London on Friday, Michelle Obama will lead the official U.S. delegation at the opening ceremonies of the Olympic Games, typically an event marked by national unity and pride. Mitt Romney will be there as well, a reminder to voters of his success in turning around the troubled Salt Lake City Winter Olympics in 2002. Ann Romney will stick around to see the horse she co-owns, Rafalca, perform in the dressage competition.

The London stop is the start of a three-nation tour by Romney designed to show his potential as a credible commander in chief, meeting with foreign leaders and discussing international policy on a global stage. He is scheduled to meet with British Prime Minister David Cameron, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. He'll deliver speeches in Israel and Poland.

Obama took a seven-nation world tour of his own at this point in the campaign four years ago — to Iraq, Afghanistan, Israel and elsewhere.

Romney outlined his foreign-policy case against Obama in a speech Tuesday in Reno at the Veteran of Foreign Wars Convention, a group the president had addressed the day before. "I pledge to you that if I become commander in chief, the United States of America will fulfill its duty, and its destiny," Romney told them.

Jobs, jobs, jobs

History says the unemployment report for July, released at the end of next week, will do more to shape November's outcome than those that follow. That's because election-year perceptions of the economy begin to be firmly set in the summer — and the economy is driving this election.

"There comes a point at which judgment is formed as opposed to just an opinion, and it's hard to reverse a judgment," says Ed Gillespie, a senior adviser to Romney. "The last unemployment report was important, and the one in August will be important, too."

Consider 1992, when the elder President Bush was running for re-election as the nation was pulling out of a recession. The jobless rate peaked at 7.8% in June and was almost as high, 7.7%, in July. It steadily ticked down after that, to 7.3% by October, but Bush tried in vain to convince Americans things really were getting better.

Democratic challenger Bill Clinton ridiculed the president's reassurances in an attack ad that fall. He won in November.

This year, the October jobs report is scheduled to be released on Nov. 2, four days before the election. Other important measures of the economy's course are the GDP estimates — due July 27 for the second quarter (with revised estimates in August and September) and on Oct. 26 for the third quarter, from July through September.

Picking a partner

Romney is likely to announce his running mate sometime during the two weeks after the Olympics end Aug. 12 — to avoid competing for attention with the Games — and before the Republican National Convention opens in Tampa on Aug. 27. The process is scrutinized in part as a sign of what kind of decision-maker the presidential candidate would be in office: deliberative or instinctive? Cautious or a risk-taker?

McCain's surprise choice four years ago of then-Alaska governor Sarah Palin, unveiled the day after the Democratic convention ended and three days before the Republican convention opened, underscored his trust-your-gut training as a Navy pilot. Romney's business past shows him as the deliberative sort who carefully would analyze the implications of various choices before acting.

Many news reports center on Ohio Sen. Rob Portman, an experienced Washington hand from a crucial swing state; former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty, a onetime competitor for the nomination who has become a top surrogate; and Louisiana Gov.Bobby Jindal.

The veepstakes has created a cottage industry for lawyers who specialize in vetting contenders, and it is catnip for cable TV commentators. How much it matters to voters isn't clear, however. The last vice presidential pick who clearly made a difference in an election was then-senator Lyndon Johnson, whose presence on the Democratic ticket was decisive in carrying his native Texas and putting John F. Kennedy in the Oval Office.

That was, of course, more than a half-century ago.

The big speech

More than vice presidential picks, more than candidate debates, what matters in the campaign's final 100 days are their convention speeches, Christopher Wlezien of Temple University has concluded. He studied the issue for his forthcoming book, The Timeline of Presidential Elections.

Even with the advent of the Internet and the saturation of social media, some voters don't tune in to the election until the conventions, Wlezien says. The speeches give them a first look at a challenger who isn't familiar and a second look at a president who is. "It gets voters to take stock," he says. "Do I want to stay the course? Do I want a change?" The candidates' standings after the conventions have proved to be a reasonably reliable indicator of who will win.

Romney delivers his address Aug. 30 at the Tampa Bay Times Forum in Tampa; Obama, on Sept. 6 at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte.

Both campaigns describe the moment as pivotal. "They are the biggest speaking platform the candidates are going to have to lay out their arguments," Axelrod says.

Gillespie says the speech "sets the frame for the campaign's homestretch. And it's a chance for people to see the nominee unfiltered, not in 30-second spots, not in characterizations or caricatures, but directly, and judge for themselves."

In 1988, the elder Bush solidified support in a convention speech emphasizing his determination to oppose tax hikes. "Read my lips: No new taxes," he vowed. That helped him win in 1988, although the fact he broke that promise as president contributed to his defeat in 1992.

The debates

If it's hard to find examples of vice presidential nominees affecting election outcomes, it's easy to find times when the presidential debates have defined the final weeks of a campaign. "Look, back as far as Kennedy-Nixon the debates have been pretty important," says Gillespie, a former GOP national chairman.

In 1960, at the first presidential debate, Richard Nixon's 5 o'clock shadow and sweaty mien contrasted with John Kennedy's ease; JFK won in November. In 1976, President Ford's gaffe ("There is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe") was a distraction in the final days; he lost to Jimmy Carter. Ronald Reagan's confident debate demeanor in 1980 won over some voters, and his closing pitch — "Are you better off than you were four years ago?" — became a campaign mantra. He won.

Preparations already have begun in both campaigns for the debates. Obama has drafted Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry to play the role of Romney in his practice sessions. Four years ago, Portman was John McCain's foil in preparations for debates with Obama.

The Commission on Presidential Debates announced Wednesday that the first debate, in Denver, would focus on domestic policy. The second, in Hempstead, N.Y., will have a town-hall-style format. The third, in Boca Raton, Fla., will be on foreign policy.

"Those undecided voters typically wait until the debates are over to make their final decisions," says Donna Brazile, campaign manager of Al Gore's 2000 presidential bid. When the debates are over, Axelrod says, "people will make their own judgments."

Ryan on Obama: “more worried about their next election than they are about the next generation.”

Ryan comes out swinging as Romney VP pick, condemns Obama ‘record of failure’

(Fox News) Paul Ryan came out swinging Saturday in his new role as Mitt Romney’s running mate, accusing President Obama of presiding over a “record of failure” and promising to speak “truth” to America’s problems and correct course.

“We can turn this thing around,” Ryan vowed, as he and Romney joined for the first time as the official 2012 Republican ticket.

The Wisconsin congressman, to the backdrop of retired battleship USS Wisconsin, gave a feisty opening speech — setting the tone for the Romney-Ryan bus tour that’s next on the agenda, and the race going forward. Dutifully promoting the top of the ticket, Ryan touted Romney as the solution to the economic problems under Obama.

Met with chants of “USA, USA” from a riled-up crowd in Virginia, Ryan spoke broadly about the virtues of free enterprise and specifically about America’s economic woes, all laced with pointed attacks on the White House incumbent. Though Ryan’s reputation is that of a reserved and wonkish pol, his break-out speech as running mate signaled he’ll be playing offense for Romney quite frequently.

Ryan accused the Obama team of being “more worried about their next election than they are about the next generation.” He blamed Obama’s “misguided policies” for the economic rut the country’s been stuck in.

“No one disputes that President Obama inherited a difficult situation. And, in his first two years, with his party in complete control of Washington, he passed nearly every item on his agenda. But that didn’t make things better,” Ryan said. “In fact, we find ourselves in a nation facing debt, doubt and despair. …

“Whatever the explanations, whatever the excuses, this is a record of failure.”

Ryan is likely to continue..

Palestinian Bid for Full Membership at the UN

The Palestinians, as represented by the Palestinian Authority, have long sought to establish an independent, sovereign state in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and Gaza - occupied by Israel since the 1967 Six Day War. However, two decades of on-and-off peace talks have failed to produce a deal. The latest round of negotiations broke down a year ago.

Late last year, Palestinian officials began pursuing a new diplomatic strategy: asking individual countries to recognise an independent Palestinian state on the 1967 borders. Now they want the UN to admit them as a full member state. Currently the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) only has observer entity status. This would have political implications and allow Palestinians to join UN agencies and become party to international treaties, such as the International Criminal Court, where they could take legal action to challenge the occupation of territory by Israel.